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Perceived collision risks in anchorages: a hierarchical ordered probit analysis
conference contribution
posted on 2009-01-01, 00:00 authored by Ashim DebnathAshim Debnath, H C ChinNavigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.
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Event
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. Conference (8th : 2009 : Surabaya, Indonesia)Pagination
1 - 12Publisher
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies ConferenceLocation
Surabaya, IndonesiaPlace of publication
[Surabaya, Indonesia]Start date
2009-11-16End date
2009-11-19Language
engPublication classification
E1.1 Full written paper - refereedCopyright notice
2009, Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies ConferenceEditor/Contributor(s)
UnknownTitle of proceedings
EASTS 2009 : Proceedings of the 8th Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies ConferenceUsage metrics
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