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Perceived collision risks in anchorages: a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

conference contribution
posted on 2009-01-01, 00:00 authored by Ashim DebnathAshim Debnath, H C Chin
Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

History

Event

Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. Conference (8th : 2009 : Surabaya, Indonesia)

Pagination

1 - 12

Publisher

Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Conference

Location

Surabaya, Indonesia

Place of publication

[Surabaya, Indonesia]

Start date

2009-11-16

End date

2009-11-19

Language

eng

Publication classification

E1.1 Full written paper - refereed

Copyright notice

2009, Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Conference

Editor/Contributor(s)

Unknown

Title of proceedings

EASTS 2009 : Proceedings of the 8th Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Conference

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