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Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

journal contribution
posted on 2009-12-01, 00:00 authored by H C Chin, Ashim DebnathAshim Debnath
An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot's pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

History

Journal

Safety Science

Volume

47

Issue

10

Pagination

1410 - 1416

Publisher

Elsevier

Location

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

ISSN

0925-7535

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal