Modelling collision potentials in Port Anchorages: application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in the literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) to measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Building on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to the shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.