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Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

journal contribution
posted on 2011-10-01, 00:00 authored by Ashim DebnathAshim Debnath, H C Chin, M M Haque
Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influential factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modelling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher at night.

History

Journal

Journal of navigation

Volume

64

Issue

4

Pagination

645 - 655

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Location

Cambridge, Eng.

ISSN

0373-4633

eISSN

1469-7785

Language

eng

Publication classification

C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal

Copyright notice

2011, The Royal Institute of Navigation

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