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Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts
journal contribution
posted on 2011-10-01, 00:00 authored by Ashim DebnathAshim Debnath, H C Chin, M M HaqueNavigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influential factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modelling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher at night.
History
Journal
Journal of navigationVolume
64Issue
4Pagination
645 - 655Publisher
Cambridge University PressLocation
Cambridge, Eng.Publisher DOI
ISSN
0373-4633eISSN
1469-7785Language
engPublication classification
C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2011, The Royal Institute of NavigationUsage metrics
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