File(s) under permanent embargo
Prediction interval-based modelling of polymerization reactor: a new modelling strategy for chemical reactors
journal contribution
posted on 2014-01-01, 00:00 authored by Anwar HosenAnwar Hosen, Abbas KhosraviAbbas Khosravi, Douglas CreightonDouglas Creighton, Saeid NahavandiPrecise and reliable modelling of polymerization reactor is challenging due to its complex reaction mechanism and non-linear nature. Researchers often make several assumptions when deriving theories and developing models for polymerization reactor. Therefore, traditional available models suffer from high prediction error. In contrast, data-driven modelling techniques provide a powerful framework to describe the dynamic behaviour of polymerization reactor. However, the traditional NN prediction performance is significantly dropped in the presence of polymerization process disturbances. Besides, uncertainty effects caused by disturbances present in reactor operation can be properly quantified through construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for model outputs. In this study, we propose and apply a PI-based neural network (PI-NN) model for the free radical polymerization system. This strategy avoids assumptions made in traditional modelling techniques for polymerization reactor system. Lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is used to develop PI-NN model for uncertainty quantification. To further improve the quality of model, a new method is proposed for aggregation of upper and lower bounds of PIs obtained from individual PI-NN models. Simulation results reveal that combined PI-NN performance is superior to those individual PI-NN models in terms of PI quality. Besides, constructed PIs are able to properly quantify effects of uncertainties in reactor operation, where these can be later used as part of the control process.
History
Journal
Journal of the Taiwan institute of chemical engineersVolume
45Issue
5Pagination
2246 - 2257Publisher
Elsevier BVLocation
Amsterdam, NetherlandsPublisher DOI
ISSN
1876-1070Language
engPublication classification
C Journal article; C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2014, Elsevier BVUsage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Ensemble neural networkNeural networkPolymerization reactorPrediction intervalScience & TechnologyTechnologyEngineering, ChemicalEngineeringARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKSFREE-RADICAL POLYMERIZATIONTUNING PID CONTROLBATCH POLYMERIZATIONTEMPERATURE CONTROLELECTRICITY PRICEOPTIMIZATIONPERFORMANCECONSTRUCTIONALGORITHM
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC