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Predictivity of tourism demand data
journal contribution
posted on 2021-07-01, 00:00 authored by Yishuo ZhangYishuo Zhang, Gang LiGang Li, Birgit MUSKAT, Quan VuQuan Vu, Rob LawAs tourism researchers continue to search for solutions to determine the best possible forecasting performance, it is important to understand the maximum predictivity achieved by models, as well as how various data characteristics influence the maximum predictivity. Drawing on information theory, the predictivity of tourism demand data is quantitatively evaluated and beneficial for improving the performance of tourism demand forecasting. Empirical results from Hong Kong tourism demand data show that 1) the predictivity could largely help the researchers estimate the best possible forecasting performance and understand the influence of various data characteristics on the forecasting performance.; 2) the predictivity can be used to assess the short effect of external shock — such as SARS over tourism demand forecasting.
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Journal
Annals of tourism researchVolume
89Article number
103234Pagination
1 - 16Publisher
ElsevierLocation
Amsterdam, The NetherlandsPublisher DOI
eISSN
0160-7383Language
engPublication classification
C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalUsage metrics
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