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The consequences of climate-driven stop-over sites changes on migration schedules and fitness of Arctic geese
journal contribution
posted on 2008-07-01, 00:00 authored by S Bauer, M van Dinther, K A Høgda, Marcel KlaassenMarcel Klaassen, J Madsen1. How climatic changes affect migratory birds remains difficult to predict because birds use multiple sites in a highly interdependent manner. A better understanding of how conditions along the flyway affect migration and ultimately fitness is of paramount interest.
2. Therefore, we developed a stochastic dynamic model to generate spatially and temporally explicit predictions of stop-over site use. For each site, we varied energy expenditure, onset of spring, intake rate and day-to-day stochasticity independently. We parameterized the model for the migration of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus from its wintering grounds in Western Europe to its breeding grounds on Arctic Svalbard.
3. Model results suggested that the birds follow a risk-averse strategy by avoiding sites with comparatively high energy expenditure or stochasticity levels in favour of sites with highly predictable food supply and low expenditure. Furthermore, the onset of spring on the stop-over sites had the most pronounced effect on staging times while intake rates had surprisingly little effect.
4. Subsequently, using empirical data, we tested whether observed changes in the onset of spring along the flyway explain the observed changes in migration schedules of pink-footed geese from 1990 to 2004. Model predictions generally agreed well with empirically observed migration patterns, with geese leaving the wintering grounds earlier while considerably extending their staging times in Norway.
2. Therefore, we developed a stochastic dynamic model to generate spatially and temporally explicit predictions of stop-over site use. For each site, we varied energy expenditure, onset of spring, intake rate and day-to-day stochasticity independently. We parameterized the model for the migration of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus from its wintering grounds in Western Europe to its breeding grounds on Arctic Svalbard.
3. Model results suggested that the birds follow a risk-averse strategy by avoiding sites with comparatively high energy expenditure or stochasticity levels in favour of sites with highly predictable food supply and low expenditure. Furthermore, the onset of spring on the stop-over sites had the most pronounced effect on staging times while intake rates had surprisingly little effect.
4. Subsequently, using empirical data, we tested whether observed changes in the onset of spring along the flyway explain the observed changes in migration schedules of pink-footed geese from 1990 to 2004. Model predictions generally agreed well with empirically observed migration patterns, with geese leaving the wintering grounds earlier while considerably extending their staging times in Norway.
History
Journal
Journal of animal ecologyVolume
77Issue
4Pagination
654 - 660Publisher
WileyLocation
Oxford, EnglandPublisher DOI
ISSN
0021-8790eISSN
1365-2656Language
engPublication classification
C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2008, The AuthorsUsage metrics
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Anser brachyrhynchusbehaviour-based modelonset of springphenologystochastic-dynamic programmingScience & TechnologyLife Sciences & BiomedicineEcologyZoologyEnvironmental Sciences & EcologyNORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONTRANS-SAHARAN MIGRANTLONG-DISTANCE MIGRANTANSER-BRACHYRHYNCHUSSPRING MIGRATIONAVIAN MIGRATIONBARNACLE GEESEDYNAMIC-MODELFOOD QUALITYINTAKE RATES
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